NFL Superbowl
NFL Betting: Home dogs continue to cash
2010-10-12
For Sportsbook.com bettors that like to bet on NFL home dogs, the 2010 season has been a profitable one so far. If you are into football betting, reading on is a must…
This past weekend home underdogs went 3-1 both ATS and SU. That pushes the records of home underdogs to a profitable 19-10-1 (66%) ATS and 17-13 (57%) SU on the season.
Washington (+3) edged Green Bay 16-13 in overtime, Oakland (+7) knocked off San Diego 35-27, and Arizona (+6.5) downed New Orleans 30-20 with the help of three defensive touchdowns. The only home ‘dog to be defeated in Week 5 was Cleveland, which dropped a 20-10 decision to Atlanta.
The early betting lines for Week 6 show four home underdogs (with Denver hosting the Jets a likely fifth home underdog). Here are the four matchups, along with some important NFL betting trends info which supports more home dogs to cash this weekend. (Football Betting Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com)
San Diego at St. Louis (+8.5)
The Chargers have been favored in all three of their road games this season and they are 0-3 both ATS and SU (Kansas City, Seattle, Oakland). The Rams are 2-1 both ATS and SU as a home underdog this season.
Play On - Any team (St. Louis) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game, after the first month of the season. (49-19 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.1%, +28.1 units. Rating = 3*).
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+5)
Since barely covering the 4.5 spread in its opening night win over Minnesota (N.O. won by five), the Saints have gone 0-4 ATS. Play Against - Favorites (New Orleans) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. (33-11 over the last 10 seasons.) (75%, +20.9 units. Rating = 2*).
The Saints continue to be overvalued based on the fact that they are the reigning Super Bowl champs. Their offense just isn’t as potent as it was a year ago. The Saints have yet to score more than 25 points in any game this season after doing so in 12 of their first 13 games a year ago. In its 19 games last year (including playoffs), the Saints scored 30-plus on 12 occasions, including five games in which they scored over 40.
Indianapolis at Washington (+3)
The Colts have lost twice as road favorites already this year (Houston and Jacksonville), while the Redskins already boast a pair of victories as home underdogs (Dallas and Green Bay).
Play Against - Favorites (Indianapolis) - after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. (34-10 since 1983.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*).
Play Against - Road teams (Indianapolis) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG). (24-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 3*).
Tennessee at Jacksonville (+3)
The Jaguars have won two straight games as underdogs (vs. Indianapolis, at Buffalo) while the Titans have lost two straight games as favorites (vs. Denver, vs. Pittsburgh).
Play Against - Road teams (Tennessee) - off an upset win as an underdog, with a winning record on the season. (231-149 since 1983.) (60.8%, +67.1 units. Rating = 2*).
To cash-in on these betting trends or to simply check out NFL point spreads for Week 6, head over to Sportsbook.com now.
NFL: AFC South Preview2010-08-19The AFC South is comprised of the Tennessee Titans, the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Indianapolis Colts, and the Houston Texans.
It’s safe to say that the Indianapolis Colts will dominate the AFC South again this year, as they have for pretty much this decade, and they’re a safe bet when it comes to football betting. As long as the Colts have Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, and Dallas Clarke, they are going to be unstoppable. Interestingly enough, the Colts franchise is looking to make quarterback Peyton Manning the highest paid player in NFL history. There was a story about this a few days ago on ESPN.com. No details were given, but the team president said he would have no reservations in increasing Peyton’s contract. The thing is that Peyton is currently on a contract with the Indianapolis Colts for $98 million. Jeez, what does the franchise want to increase his contract to? Equal to the national debt of the United States? I’m not saying that Peyton Manning is not worth, because he is. The man is a four time league MVP, won a Super Bowl, has over 30,000 passing yards, and already broke Dan Marino’s record of passing touchdowns in a season. So he’s definitely worth it. Besides, I love watching Peyton Manning play, don’t you? He’s the pinnacle definition of the term ‘field general.’ Before the ball is snapped, Peyton almost always goes to the line and points out the possible blitzing linebackers to his teammates, he makes adjustments according to the current look of the defense, and calls audibles; the man is a football genius who will find any and every way to beat you. Sometimes, when he’s calling audibles, he’s actually calling fake audibles, and doesn’t change the current play. This keeps the defense guessing all the time. And football betting keeps a close eye on things like this.
But enough about the Indianapolis Colts. We all know they are going to reign supreme yet again in the AFC South. Let’s discuss the most interesting team in the AFC South, the Tennessee Titans.
The Tennessee Titans started off their 2009 season campaign on an extremely low note. The Titans lost their first six games of the season, including a disgusting 59-0 trouncing at the hands of the New England Patriots in week six. In that game, quarterback Vince Young, not a rookie but not quite a pro either, had zero passing yards. No joke. Vince Young only attempted two passes, did not complete either one of them, and even managed to throw an interception. No wonder they lost. On the opposite side of the spectrum, things couldn’t have gone any better for the Patriots, who gained a franchise record 619 offensive yards. Plus, quarterback Tom Brady threw a total of six touchdown passes, and five of those were thrown in the second quarter alone. Not to mention the fact that Tom Brady had 380 passing yards that game, too. Young could learn a thing or two from the former Michigan Wolverine.
That 59-0 spanking seemed to have woken up the Tennessee Titans up, because after the sixth straight loss, something clicked. The Titans proceeded to win their next five games, only to have their sudden spurt of success dampened a little bit by a 27-17 loss to the Colts in week 13. What did you expect? It’s Peyton Manning. After that loss to the Colts, the Titans won their next two games, lost the next one against the San Diego Chargers, and ended their season with a 17-13 win over the lowly NFC West Seattle Seahawks in week 17.
It’s funny how winning coincides with offensive production. I’ve already said that Vince Young had absolutely zero passing yards in the stomping by the Patriots, but when the Titans were winning, so was Vince. In the narrow 20-17 win over the Arizona Cardinals, Young threw for a season high 387 yards. In the 10 games following their six game losing streak, Young only threw for under 100 yards once, and that was in the 42-17 beat down put on the Titans by the Chargers in week 16.
In the first six games, which we now know were losses, Vince Young had no passing yards. But that’s probably because he only played in that 59-0 smashing against the Patriots. In the games following those six losses, Young accumulated 1,901 passing yards, but only threw for 10 touchdowns and had seven interceptions. In those 10 games after the losing streak, Young managed an 82.8 quarterback rating. That’s pretty good considering he didn’t play in five games. Obviously the kid has talent, and is definitely an effective leader. But in order for the Titans to continue their late season success, Young needs to be at the helm from game one.
Like I said earlier, the Indianapolis Colts are the sure number one in the AFC South. I believe the Tennessee Titans will give the Colts competition, but not enough to win it, but they’ll definitely improve on last season’s successes. Obviously, the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans will bring up the rear of the conference, with the edge going to the Houston Texans, who don’t have nearly as many problems or struggles as the Jacksonville Jaguars. So if football betting is something you’re into, I’d for sure bet on the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts. The lines at www.sportsbook.com say the Colts are the class of the division. The Colts are at -250 to win the division right now and that number may go even further down as the season progresses. Get into the football betting action early this year at www.sportsbook.com where everybody bets!
NFL: Minnesota at Chicago (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)2009-12-28This week’s Monday night game probably looked much more attractive to ESPN executives at the outset of the season, but as Minnesota has started to struggle, there still is some drama left to play out. Speaking of drama, what in the world is going on with Brad Childress and Brett Favre? Trouble in paradise? Is the honeymoon over? How does it affect Monday’s contest vs. Chicago? Bettors at Sportsbook.com don’t seem to be worried, as 90% of them are backing the Vikings as a 7-point favorite.
The Vikings have clinched the NFC North title, much in thanks to their 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS record in divisional games. Chicago has sunk to 5-9 by losing six of its L7 games, including a 36-10 rout at the hands of the Vikings in November. The Bears have fared well at home in this head-to-head series however, going 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS dating back to ’98. They are also on a nice 12-3 ATS run when revenging a loss of 14 points or more to an opponent. However, HC Lovie Smith’s team has been at its worst against good teams, 0-7 ATS vs. clubs with a winning record in ’09.
Known as the Purple People Eaters, the Vikings captured six straight NFC Central Division titles from 1973-78, appeared in four conference championship games and three Super Bowls. Along with Pittsburgh and the Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota enjoyed four consecutive double-digit win seasons—playing a 14-game schedule—starting in 1973 and was entrenched as one of the league’s elite franchises.
Three decades later, the Vikings have yet to return to the Super Bowl but they took a considerable step last Sunday when Green Bay’s loss in Pittsburgh gave them back-to-back division crowns for the first time since the late ‘70s. Only two current Vikings—Brett Favre and Pat Williams—were alive when it happened last and they’ll help try secure a first-round playoff bye for the first time since 1998.
Favre became the third new starting quarterback among NFC North squads when he signed a two-year deal with Minnesota in August, joining Jay Cutler in Chicago and rookie Matt Stafford in Detroit. To say the 40-year-old has much been the best of the three would be a major understatement. Favre ranks among the top three in quarterback rating and touchdown-to-interception margin (plus-20). He’s also in the top 10 in passing yards (3,565) and attempts (460).
Despite 24 more attempts than Favre, Cutler’s numbers don’t compare, albeit neither does his supporting cast. Cutler has 3,117 yards, 19 touchdowns and 25 interceptions after last week’s 31-7 loss in Baltimore that has the temperature rising on head coach Lovie Smith’s hot seat.
Favre and the Vikings, 11-3 after falling in Carolina last Sunday night, took Round 1 with the Bears in Week 12, rolling to a 36-10 victory at the Metrodome. Favre was masterful in completing 32 of 48 passes for 392 yards and three touchdowns. All three of his scoring tosses—one each to rookie Percy Harvin, Chester Taylor and Visanthe Shiancoe—came in the second quarter as the hosts built a 24-7 halftime lead. Cutler threw for 147 yards and a touchdown and was picked off twice and sacked four times.
Can Chicago be worse in the rematch on Monday night after managing only eight first downs in the first meeting while giving up 31? After digging a 17-point deficit at the half, the Bears abandoned the run to play catch-up but nothing worked.
PREDICTION: Though this game will no doubt be closer than the first, the fun continues for Favre and the nightmare doesn’t stop for Cutler. It all comes down to the Bears’ ability to run the ball. If Matt Forte can explode for about 150 yards, they’ve got a shot. MINNESOTA 24, CHICAGO 12
NFL: Sunday Late Afternoon NFL Kickoffs (4:05 PM ET, FOX & CBS)2009-09-25Of the five late afternoon games in the NFL, all are important in some way or another. Of course, when you’re betting, the games that mean more are the ones you have wagering tickets on. With that thought in mind, here’s is a look at three of the games to choose from with kickoffs in the 4 o’clock hour. Get the latest wagering options from Sportsbook.com at the LIVE ODDS page.
(419) CHICAGO at (420) SEATTLE
Chicago got a big win on Sunday afternoon vs. Pittsburgh and now has some momentum as it heads to Seattle for a matchup of 1-1 teams. The Bears, without LB Brian Urlacher for the rest of the year, stepped up and knocked off the defending champs as home dogs. However, they have won just one of their L6 road games, both SU & ATS, and making matters worse, haven’t won in Seattle in over 25 years, being outscored 92-49 in three games since. The Seahawks are off the loss in San Francisco, a game in which they were chewed up for 256 yards rushing by the 49ers. However, they are on a 12-5-1 ATS run at home, including 8-2-1 ATS as a favorite. They opened as 2.5-point chalk in this one. Chicago is on a 3-11 ATS slide when coming off a win.
(421) NEW ORLEANS at (422) BUFFALO
New Orleans might be one of the NFL’s elite teams and the favorite in Sunday’s game at Buffalo, but make no mistake, this one won’t be easy. After last week’s win over Tampa Bay, Head coach Dick Jauron now owns a 15-3 ATS mark at home against non-conference teams. His Bills’ clubs are also 9-4 ATS in September, and 8-4 ATS as home dogs. By all rights, Buffalo should be 2-0 headed into this one as well, having handed New England the win in the Monday night opener. The Saints are in a comfortable role however, that being road favorites. Under Sean Payton, they are 7-1 SU & ATS after last week’s win at Philly. His team was also 4-0 ATS against the AFC in ’08. In this h2h series, road teams are on a 3-1 SU & ATS run, with favorites having swept the last three.
(423) MIAMI at (424) SAN DIEGO
Miami & UNDER, that has been the winning betting recipe in the series between the Dolphins and Chargers. Miami owns a 7-1 SU & ATS record in the L8 head-to-head matchups since ‘95, while the UNDER has converted on all eight games during that span. The Chargers will be looking to change that side trend when the clubs meet in a Week 3 contest. They are on a run of 12-3 ATS as a host to AFC foes after the win over Baltimore. That trend will be tested by the fact that Miami swept all six road games vs. conference opponents in ’08. The Dolphins are also on a more extended run of 31-12 vs. AFC West teams. San Diego is 1-1 after losing at home to the Ravens’, a game in which the Chargers gained 474 yards of offense.
NFL: Washington Redskins 2008 Preview2008-07-22With the first exhibition game less than two weeks away, NFL talk is coming fast and furious. Washington and Indianapolis will play in the Hall-of-Fame game on Sunday, August 3. This week we’ll take a look at the Redskins chances for the upcoming season and see what the best bet for season total wins is.
Joe Gibbs was never able to re-create his success in return visit to Washington, other than a couple of playoff appearances. Gibbs had given it his all, but the demands were more than he wanted to continue to deal with and new head coach Jim Zorn was hired to build on last year’s 9-7 campaign. Gibbs never quite found the magic, having hired assistant coaches that he was more comfortable with (his age) who never really effectively attacked opponent’s weakness. Gibbs spiritualism did help guide the team thru last year’s senseless death of Sean Taylor and as a human being, Gibbs should be commended for that alone.
One of the first orders of business is to restructure the offense. Quarterback Jason Campbell is still a work in progress and Zorn believes he can teach him to be more effective. The offense only ranked 20th in points scored (20.9) and 20th in total offense at 333.3 yards per game. Adding weapons thru the draft should make the offense more productive, especially in the second half of the season when a higher degree of comfort is met. Campbell will have the chance to be more effective in traditional West Coast offense, featuring slants and passes into the flat.
What could be more challenging for the new coach is maintain excellence on the defense. In 2007, the Redskins were 8th in total defense and 11th in points allowed. That was on the heels of being 30th in yards allowed in 2006, after being 8th in same category in 2005. DC Gregg Williams super aggressive schemes have been replaced by new DC Greg Blache, who was not deemed good enough to hold the job after 2004 season and had been managing the defense line in our nation’s capital since. Washington has age on the left side of defense, which could hold them back from moving forward in Zorn’s maiden adventure as the skipper.
It was nearly impossible to comprehend, but owner Dan Snyder’s wallet actually had dust coming out of this off-season. For the first time since buying the Redskins, Danny Boy made no splashy signings (unless you’re related to former Texans WR Jerome Mathis). In spite of only three playoff appearances since taking ownership, Snyder trusted his staff and new coach Jim Zorn. Under Joe Gibbs second tour of duty in Washington, he made a point to have munchkin receivers. This placed added pressure on QB Jason Campbell to make the perfect throws down the field. This time, the Skins chose the right path and landed 6’2 Devin Thomas and 6’4 Malcolm Thomas. In a weak group of wide receivers, this tandem were rated two of the best three. Trojans TE Fred Davis has good skills and could free up Chris Cooley in down the field routes. Executive vice president Vinny Cerrato was not afraid to play to Zorn’s strengths on the offensive side, nonetheless, has harbored criticism for not better addressing age in the defensive line and strong side LB spots. After losing DE Philip Daniels with tear to left knee ligament the first day of training camp, Cerrato picked up the phone and made trade for Jason Taylor to shore up weak area.
2008 Outlook – It’s the dawning of a new era in Washington, with Jim Zorn taking the reins. While improvement seems to be the theme for the Redskins, they received no help from NFL schedule maker. They are the sacrificial lamb in season opener at the Meadowlands for the Super Bowl champs. Also, back-to-back road division games pop-up in Weeks 4 and 5 against Dallas and Philadelphia respectively. From that point Washington needs to play well, since the season concludes with four of last six away from FedEx Field.
The Redskins are presumed to be better in certain areas, nonetheless, putting in new offensive and defensive schemes takes time for adjustment, for the players and coaches. Unless Zorn is the second coming of Bill Walsh, it will take Redskins players time to figure where they need to be on both sides of the ball. In the first part of the year, this means more thinking than reacting, which in this league is the difference between a first down or a tackle for loss. Zorn also will make first year coaching mistakes, further complicating more positive results. Possible tough sledding in Zorn’s first year and we’ll support the Under 7.5 total at Sportsbook.com.